Japan Announces Energy Mix Plan for 2030

2015/05/01 11:39
Kenji Kaneko, Nikkei BP CleanTech Institute
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Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) had the eighth meeting of the Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook Subcommittee, Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, April 28, 2015, and announced a proposal concerning the desirable energy mix (composition ratios of power sources) in 2030.

Specifically, the goals announced at the subcommittee is to (1) realize a primary energy self-sufficiency of about 25% (including nuclear power plants), (2) lower electricity cost from the current level and (3) have a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as the US and European countries aim to.

According to the plan announced at the subcommittee, the ratios of renewable energy and nuclear power will be 22-24% and 22-20%, respectively, in 2030. If the ratio of renewable energy becomes 24%, that of nuclear power will be 20%. So, the ratio of renewable energy will be four points higher than that of nuclear power. Also, the expected ratios of powers generated by using LNG (liquefied natural gas), coal and oil are expected to be 27%, 26% and 3%, respectively.

Compared with the composition ratios in fiscal 2013 (renewable energy: 11%, LNG: 43%, coal: 30%), the ratio of nuclear power will increase due to the restart of nuclear power stations, and the ratio of renewable energy will increase by more than 100% (an increase of 13 points). On the other hand, the ratios of LNG and coal will decrease by 16 and 4 points, respectively. Therefore, the degree of dependence on thermal power plants will drastically decrease.

The ratio of nuclear power will decrease by 5-7 points, compared with the average composition ratio of nuclear power for the ten years before the Great East Japan Earthquake (27%). However, in that case, the operating period of multiple nuclear power plants are supposed to be extended from 40 years (general rule) to 60 years.

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