DisplaySearch of the United States forecast shipments of organic EL TV panels would reach around 3 million units in 2011 at the 13th DisplaySearch Japan Forum July 24, 2007.
The company assumed entry to the market from a number of manufacturers including Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. of Korea in 2008 and Toshiba Matsushita Display Technology Co. Ltd. (TMD) in 2009, following Sony Corp. launching an organic EL TV onto the market in late 2007.
Full-scale volume production of organic EL TVs is "still at a stage where we should solve a lot of challenges," according to DisplaySearch's analysis. The company projected a cost of Sony's 11-inch organic EL panel will be around $700 (USD). That is equivalent to the cost of a 40-inch class LCD panel, while the costs of current 10-inch class LCD panels are about $100 per panel.
The company said cost needs to be lowered toward the diffusion of organic EL TVs. Furthermore, manufacturers must establish a volume production technology and introduce large lines to enlarge organic EL panel size, DisplaySearch said.
DisplaySearch forecasts the large organic EL TV market will grow "in or after 2012, when demand for LCD TVs slows down." This is because it involves a huge risk to invest in new facilities for organic EL panel manufacturing using large substrates or to convert existing manufacturing lines of LCD TV panels to organic EL panels.
Shipments of organic EL panels are expected to grow about 35% from 2006 to 97.3 million units in 2007. This growth, however, represents increased shipments of passive matrix panels employed for sub displays of mobile phones.
To expand the TV panel market, "First of all, we expect medium and small panel manufacturers to establish a volume production technology for active matrix OLED panels and a cost reduction technology as well," DisplaySearch said .