The increase rate was estimated as small because BNEF considered there to be many uncertainties about the installation market in China.

"Policy changes and shifts are made frequently in China," BNEF said. "It is likely that the solar power generation market will also be affected by political uncertainties."

BNEF predicted that the installation market in China in 2018 and 2019 will remain at the same level as 2017.

The significant improvement of the installation market in China from 30GW in 2016 to 53GW in 2017 was attributable largely to the impact of the policy change.

It will be recognized that the market scale is significantly affected by the policy even in China, which led the solar panel cost reduction trend as the "solar power realm" and stands out from other countries throughout the world.

The Chinese representative at BNEF predicted the transition by installation styles. BNEF estimated that the number of newly constructed "centralized-type" large power plants will decrease after peaking in 2017, while the number of newly constructed "distributed-type" rooftop or small power plants will increase, making up for the decline in newly constructed "centralized-type" plants (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: "Centralized-type" power plants will decrease rapidly, and "distributed-type" power plants will make up for the decline. Forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) in March. (source: Nikkei BP)