Special

Prospects for PV Market in China (1)

Bloomberg predicted policy change

2018/08/20 12:20
Shinichi Kato, Nikkei BP Intelligence Group, CleanTech Labo
Print Page

The national government of China made an announcement regarding its policy change on the introduction of solar power generation equipment at the end of May 2018. The global market of solar power generation equipment installation in 2017 improved by about 31% compared with 2016 and the output rose to roughly 98GW, and China contributed to the upswing as the largest driving force. Attention is focused on the influence of China on the installation market.

Research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) anticipated a move toward policy change and predicted the market trend. Prospects for the future are introduced below, together with the contents of a speech made by the Chinese representative at BNEF at an event held in March by major solar panel manufacturer Trina Solar in Changzhou City.

Research companies made corrections to their predictions for the solar power generation equipment installation market in and after 2018 in the wake of the policy change at the end of May. Many research companies estimate that the installation market in 2018 will decline from the previous year for the first time, and some of them estimate that the scale of the installation market in 2018 will be around 30GW and the scale will decline to 20 to 30GW in and after 2019.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that further changes will be made to Chinese policy, and the actual level of impact has yet to be confirmed.

The Chinese representative at BNEF predicted the scale of the global market of solar power generation equipment installation in 2018 at 101.6GW output, a small increase of about 3.8% from 2017, based on a moderate estimate (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Forecast for the solar power generation equipment installation market before announcement by China on its policy change. Predicted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) in March. (source: Nikkei BP)